By Oliver Clarke Friday, November 23rd, 2018 is the day after Thanksgiving, also known as Black Friday. Major retail brands will hold massive sales, both online and in-store, for shoppers preparing for the Holiday Season. Shoppers will turn out in droves. Over the course of the 2017 holiday season, ...

By Oliver Clarke

Friday, November 23rd, 2018 is the day after Thanksgiving, also known as Black Friday. Major retail brands will hold massive sales, both online and in-store, for shoppers preparing for the Holiday Season. Shoppers will turn out in droves. Over the course of the 2017 holiday season, the average shopper spent $967.13, for a total of $682 billion. Retail stocks rise ahead of Black Friday, anticipating significant highs for the holiday season. It may be a good idea, therefore, to buy in early November, when the sales are just starting, and sell later in the month or in December, capitalizing on the strong Q4 retail performances.

Large chains, such as Macy’s (M), Walmart (WMT), and Target (TGT), are always good bets. Five Below (FIVE), Skechers (SKX), Express (EXPR), and Urban Outfitters (URBN) have all performed well, and are expected to perform well this holiday season, too.

Skechers in particular may be an attractive choice for the beginning investor, as the stocks are currently rather low—for the past 6 months, the price has not exceeded $35 per share, however, they did much better late October 2017-early April 2018, and company stock buybacks indicate that it will rise again. This may actually be a stock to hold onto, rather than a quick turnaround. The holiday season is not only known for retail sales, but for travel, as well.
Spirit Airlines (SAVE) has a more modest 5-year returns, just 3.10%, but their 1-year returns was a staggering 39.26%. SAVE would have been better to buy in May or June, but the stock is still not the highest it’s been in recent years, which was about $60, in December 2016 and again in May 2017. Over the past year, its percent increase/decrease curve seems to follow Southwest Airlines’ (LUV) fairly closely, despite being a much smaller airline. Take from that what you will.

Allegiant Travel Co (ALGT), however, is currently experiencing a low price, at about $122 at the time of writing. Merrill Lynch’s analyst Andrew Didora approves of this stock in the long-term, and believes their strategy of switching to all Airbus planes will increase reliability and fuel efficiency, while decreasing their maintenance costs.

American Airlines (AAL)’s stock price is at a 52-week low, at barely over $30 a share. Buy quickly, because AAL will likely not stay low for long. Didora expects a third-quarter rise of 3.5% in revenue per available seat mile, above the company’s expectation of 1-3 percent, and a continuation of growth in the fourth quarter by 3.3%.